50,000 Simulations.
Find the Outliers.
A Monte Carlo sports model that surfaces the games where the market is wrong. Daily picks, fully transparent track record, free.
01
Simulate.
Every game runs through 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations using team-level efficiency metrics, contextual modifiers, and real-time inputs. The model produces a probability distribution, not a single point estimate.
02
Compare.
The model's probabilities are compared against the market's implied odds. The gap between them is the edge. Plays are only released when the edge clears a disciplined threshold.
03
Track.
Every play is logged publicly: the bet, the edge at release, the closing line, and the result. Closing line value is tracked to verify the edge was real, not lucky.
Latest Reports
May 2, 2026
Detail Report — May 2, 2026
Four plays on the board today. Two run lines, one total, one ML. Model is heaviest on the Astros/Mariners under given current starters.
Read →May 1, 2026
Detail Report — May 1, 2026
Two plays released. Red Sox run line held in a 4-3 game. Dodgers ML missed — model flagged the edge but the bullpen situation flipped late.
Read →April 30, 2026
Detail Report — April 30, 2026
Light slate. One play: Astros/Mariners under. Starter efficiency metrics and ballpark factors both pointed the same direction.
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